Real Estate Information Archive

THE NUMBERS FOR THE MARKET THROUGH THE END OF JULY ARE AN INTERESTING MIXTURE. SALES PRICE IS UP, ALTHOUGH LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE MERELY A TAX CREDIT BOOST. MY BELIEF THE REAL; IS THE TALE OF THE TAPE IN THREE MEASUREMENTS: 1^ST IS INVENTORY UP 13% FROM LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME, 2^ND THE COMPARISON WITH PENDING SALES FROM LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME DOWN 21% AND THE THIRD MEASUREMENT IS ABSORPTION TIME UP TO 246 DAYS, NOT THE MEASUREMENT OF STRENGTH HOUSING IS LOOKING FOR. A VERY BRIGHT SPOT IN THE REPORT FOR JULY IS NEW SINGLE FAMILY STARTS UP FROM LAST JULY, I HOPE FOR MY BUILDER FRIENDS THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH WITH NUMBERS ABOVE IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL. WHEN YOU MIX INTO THE THOUGHT PROCESS OF 50 YEAR HISTORICALLY LOW RATES SUB 4.5% FOR 30 YEAR MONEY THIS DOES PORTRAY A PITIFUL JULY PERFORMANCE.

here are the market numbers for the first half of 2010. plenty of positives in terms of number of sales and on the pricing front. yet Iwould temper my optimism due to the large influence of the tax credits on the market. The one stand out showing the tax credit influence is the pending sale number and it shows a year over year decline of 24% a red flag if i ever saw one to future activity.

You can see the effect of the tax credit in the four major metrics of the housing market. 1st is thew closed sales up 16% from last year. 2nd is pending sales a month after the credit expires down 12% 3rd. is active properties up 14% from last year and 4th the most dramatic is the single family building permits issued in Billings Down 86%. when you factor in that this time of year permits are normally headed up you really get the feel for the impact the tax credit has had on the housing market.

Here are the numbers through the end of April. Since real estate sales were driven by the 8k and 6.5k tax credit all numbers are looking good. The most note worthy number is the decrease in availability for rental units. There has been a consistent steady decline since mid January. The only reasonable explanation is an inflow of persons living in Yellowstone County. The curious part of that is, I can find no evidence of broad based hiring, which leaves me to ponder are people moving into the area because overall the economy of Yellowstone county is performing better than the region (which it is) to look for jobs or is that they found a job move here and no is admitting that they are hiring. I keep trying to discern which  is actually happening. All numbers from the housing sales numbers are positive except absorption. 237 days. Based on sales and current inventory trends over the next 30 days, that will shift downward pretty fast , yet still stay above 180 days which is the National Association of Realtors demarcation line for buyers have more power than sellers. It will be interesting to watch how the market reacts with no tax credit support. My belief is we will have a quite period for between 60 to 120 days where sales are slower since people took action earlier to take advantage of the tax credits.  

I was updating my rental information this morning and thought this might be Interesting to look at rent and own comparisons. For the median and average home payment I use the average and median sales price of a single family home in Billings figure a maximum FHA loan and use 20% of the principal and interest payment as the estimated tax and insurance cost. The rental information contains over 4000 apartment for rent and over 1000 homes. Previous years contain over 12000 apartment and almost 5000 homes for rent

Here are the Numbers through March 31st for The Yellowstone County Area. All the numbers are on  the postive side except for one and thta is market absorption at 229 days. You would expect thta number to rise this time of year becuase we are coming out of winter when the recent past sales have benn slower. Yet with an absorption rate that long and the tax credits expiring at the end of april it does give pause for some concern about sales without the tax credit, if the inventory remains at the level it is ans sales slow when the credits expire.

just wanted to make sure everyone understands timing on the tax credits. Both the first time buyer($8,000) and the existing home owner ($6,500) require you to have a purchase agreement in place by April 30th 2010. On both credits you do not actually have to close the purchase until June 30th 2010, so there is ample time to actually complete the purchase. For existing home owners credit, an important note is, it does not require your presnt home sold and closed  in order to qualify for the credit.

important to know only 37 more shopping days for a new residence before the tax credit expires.

have a gereat day

Going into the end of March heading for the home stretch of April with the tax credits i thought it might be interesting to look at the relative strength of the market comparing the last three years. the graph below shows the percentage of pending sales as compared to the total active inventory. if you look ta those two market indicators separately you can mis-read the relative strength or weakness of the market. yet when you look at them together you get a better picture of the strength or weakness of the market, as you can see below 2010 is between 2008 and 2009. the real test will come when the tax credits are no longer available after the April 30th deadline.

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Market update for Yellowstone County.  March 13^th 2010

I have put together a series of four graphs to try and discern the tea leafs at the bottom of the market performance cup.

The first graph shows the activity relationships to sort out how long the market will take to absorb the inventory that exists at this stage of the year, absorption time is always longer this time of year and this produced due to the slower winter sales and an increasing inventory so a little longer absorption does not mean that the sky is falling. Yet when we use the National Associations of Realtors definition of a buyers market of 180 days to absorb inventory Yellowstone County does exceed by just over 30 days sitting at absorption time of 212 days. I would note just like days on the market (presently 57 days) this number fluctuates though out the year so the trend either up, down or flat is just as important as the absorption time itself.

The second graph shows the pricing relation to the different inventory segments. My first comment would tend towards the closed sales in the average sales price you can see the effect of the first time buyer tax credit also in the off market price the slow demand shows in the average asking price of those properties that did not sell.

The third graph shows the relationship of the inventory trends the last three years what stands out is the rapid climb of 2008 as the United states economies bad news permeated the press and affected our market as people became concerned over what might happen here, the other stand out is 2010 and 2009 are essentially the same and inventory is staying flat neither increasing substantially or decreasing. This does indicate equilibrium within the market place of supply.

The fourth graph is one I personal watch closely to determine the strength of the market and that is the percentage of pendings to active properties. The reason this piece of information is important if both sales and inventory are moving in the sale direction the market shows balance which is a positive and if they are heading opposite directions you can see either strong price pressure or lack of demand much clearer than if looking at the each factor separately right now we are better than 2009 and lower than 2008. Yet the activity that will give the most definition will be when the tax credits end on April 30^th and where the trend lines are at the end of June. Those numbers will define the market for the rest of 2010. So right now it is off to the races until the tax credits expire.