The April new construction numbers are in, for the national construction business, and on a year over year some positive trends no doubt, also the trends movement from the bottom are positive, but you have a nagging feeling that all is not well in the construction business. When permits, starts and sales are off between 45 to 52% from the 50 year average, the industry as a whole still has some pretty serious challenges.

Since the peak year was back in 2005 and the time span is now seven years, as business picks up there will be challenges in finding knowledgeable capable works in all phases of the business, similar to what happened in the oil business when the price plummeted and stayed down so long. The major difference in the building business will be whether it can produce wages high enough to attract workers back in the field to generate enough production to meet demand or will a “shortage” of workers create a shortage of supply which them drives the price higher to allow wages that bring workers back into the field, because the wages offset the risk of being laid off when demand is satisfied.

Thoughts to ponder on the home conduction front …………………………………………………… 

 

actual total for year

permit issued

  

start of construction
   

multi

single

  

multi

single

single sales

 

2012:

Year to Date

227.6

151.2

 

218.5

151.4

104

 

2011:

Year to Date

179.1

127.7

 

174.5

127.3

101

 

year over year + or  -

27.08%

18.40%

  

25.21%

18.93%

2.97%

  
                 

seasonally adjusted

              
 

permits issued

      

permits issued total

    
 

one unit structure

      

includes multi family

    

permits issued

  

475

    

715

      
                 

peak year

  

1682

    

2219

      

permits % drop from peak

  

72%

    

68%

    

50 year average

  

911

    

1383

      

permits % drop from 50 year

  

48%

    

48%

    
                 

movement up from Bottom

353

35%

  

522

37%

    
                 
 

housing started

      

starts total

      
 

one unit structure

      

includes multi family

    

starts

 

492

    

717

      
                 

peak year

  

1611

    

2357

      

starts % drop from peak

  

69%

    

70%

    

50 year average

  

1056

    

1481

      

starts % drop from 50 year

  

53%

    

52%

    
                 

movement up from Bottom

360

37%

  

520

38%

    
                 
                 
 

housing sales

              
 

one unit structure

      

 

      

new single family sales

343

    

 

      
                 

peak year July 2005

  

1283

    

 

      

sales % drop from peak

  

73%

    

 

    

48 year average from 1963

628

    

 

      

sales % drop from 48 year average

  

45%

    

 

    

Bottom August 2010

              

movement up from Bottom

278

23%