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I have put together a series of four graphs to try and discern the tea leafs at the bottom of the market performance cup.

The first graph shows the activity relationships to sort out how long the market will take to absorb the inventory that exists at this stage of the year, absorption time is always longer this time of year and this produced due to the slower winter sales and an increasing inventory so a little longer absorption does not mean that the sky is falling. Yet when we use the National Associations of Realtors definition of a buyers market of 180 days to absorb inventory Yellowstone County does exceed by just over 30 days sitting at absorption time of 212 days. I would note just like days on the market (presently 57 days) this number fluctuates though out the year so the trend either up, down or flat is just as important as the absorption time itself.

The second graph shows the pricing relation to the different inventory segments. My first comment would tend towards the closed sales in the average sales price you can see the effect of the first time buyer tax credit also in the off market price the slow demand shows in the average asking price of those properties that did not sell.

The third graph shows the relationship of the inventory trends the last three years what stands out is the rapid climb of 2008 as the United states economies bad news permeated the press and affected our market as people became concerned over what might happen here, the other stand out is 2010 and 2009 are essentially the same and inventory is staying flat neither increasing substantially or decreasing. This does indicate equilibrium within the market place of supply.

The fourth graph is one I personal watch closely to determine the strength of the market and that is the percentage of pendings to active properties. The reason this piece of information is important if both sales and inventory are moving in the sale direction the market shows balance which is a positive and if they are heading opposite directions you can see either strong price pressure or lack of demand much clearer than if looking at the each factor separately right now we are better than 2009 and lower than 2008. Yet the activity that will give the most definition will be when the tax credits end on April 30^th and where the trend lines are at the end of June. Those numbers will define the market for the rest of 2010. So right now it is off to the races until the tax credits expire.

1124 Competition Avenue has a new price!

$162,350

Great family home, 4 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, 2 car attached garage, family room, fenced yard and so much more!

Call Howard today to view this wonderful home!

Brand New Home - Great Price!

1786 Heritage Walk

Located near the biking/walking path in the Billings Heights area

$189,900

2 bedrooms, 3 baths, large open living room area, family room, plus room to expand, oversized 2 car garage, deck, and room to expand!

Don't forget the tax credits available when you purchase a home, call for details!

New price on this great home!  Call to see it today!

739 Lewis Avenue

Now...$154,900

3 bedrooms, 1 bath, garage, large fenced yard, remodeled home, new oak kitchen, hardwood flooring, bright & sunny living spaces, lots of storage too!

I have generated two graphs to show the market and condition. First is the inventory graph as of this morning 3/8/2010 the first bar is inventory of single family homes, the positive the inventory is about 3% lower than last year at this time, the second bar, pending sales,  we have about 25% more pending sales than last year at this time, closed transaction using the same time frames for absorption 192 days back from today a year ago we have 9.1% fewer closed transactions. The fourth bar is the number of homes that went off market either expired or withdrawn in the absorption time of 192 days at 542 which is greater than existing inventory level is not a positive indicator. What this also indicates it will take a total of about 1023 homes to have been on the market to generate 486 sales or a sales rate of only 47.5% not a great number. The fifth bar is the length of time it will take to find 486 buyers that will actually close a transaction at 192 days that is over the  definition of a buyers market since it exceeds a 180 days. The fifth bar is the time it took to receive a contract on those that closed and it is only 50 days this tells us that if a home is priced properly it will sell and sell in a very reasonable time.

This second graph shows the price point corresponding to each of the above categories first is the most obvious that the higher you go into the market place the less likely it is a home is going to sell, (the off market) when you look at the both the pending and closed price points it jut confirms the information of the majority of higher priced inventory not selling. Looking at the active inventory price point also indicates that although the mix of inventory is trending towards lower price and there is most probably inventory that will not be selling.

Open House, Sunday March 7, 2010

12:00 Noon to 2:00 p.m.

1668 Inverness Drive

Make the smart choice with this nearly-new home and maintenance free living! 3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 baths, garage, fenced yard and so much more!  $151,900

Ask about the tax credits available when you purchase this home

SO YOU MIGHT ASK HOW IS YELLOWSTONE FAIRING COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE STATE?

Default Choice - Percent of Originations Currently in Default

Performance Period - 01/31/2010
Loan Portfolio: Traditional FHA
Sorted by Compare Ratio

Data shown includes all insured single family loans with a beginning amortization
date between February 01, 2008 and January 31, 2010

This home has an extraordinary bird's eye view of the Billings area!

76 Skyline Drive

$229,000

Large yard, great home, 3 bedrooms, 3 baths, huge family room, deck, fenced yard, 2 car garage, squeaky clean, huge storage/work shop space and more!

Call today 245-6890!

Open 1-3

Sunday, February 21, 2010

3181 Fairmeadow Drive

Enjoy the space this home has to offer with over 3,600 sq. ft., 4 bedrooms, 3 1/2 baths, 3 car garage, large fenced yard, RV parking, storage and so much more  $275,000

Open 1-3 PM

Sunday, February 14, 2010

739 Lewis Avenue

Charming & Delightful 3 bedroom home, convenient location, fenced yard, garage, storage, updated kitchen, wood flooring main level $159,500

Ask about the tax credits available when you purchase this home!

Open 1-3

Sunday, January 31, 2010

215 Custer Avenue

The charm of yesteryear with modern conveniences in this 3 bedroom, 3 bath home, wonderful kitchen space with all appliances, family room, office/den, large work shop, storage and so much more!  $169,900

Open 1-3

Saturday, January 30, 2010

1202 Crawford Drive

$169,500

Well maintained home with new kitchen, 3 bedrooms, deck, garage, fenced yard, great Northwest Billings location.  Don't miss it!

Investor Alert!

4-plex For Sale

1350 Easy Street

4-2bedroom, 1 bath units, garages, convenient location, appliances included, decks and more!  Call today to view this property.  $296,700

Howard Sumner 245-6890

Open 1-3

Sunday January 24, 2010

1140 Patriot Street

Exceptional and spacious home with over 3,300 square feet, 3 car garage, custom kitchen, private back yard with deck, 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, storage galore.  You have to see this!  $224,900

Open 1-3

1785 Fantan Street

Located near Skyview High School

A warm & friendly atmosphere welcomes you to this 4 bedroom, 3 bath home, family room, main level laundry, covered deck, fenced & landscaped yard, family room, 2 car attached garage, storage $209,500

1786 Heritage Walk

Open 1-3

Location: From Main Street turn East to  Bench Boulevard, turn North on Bench to Kyhl Lane

Brand new 2 bedroom home, 3 baths, oversized 2 car garage, deck, large open living area with vaulted ceiling, gas fireplace, custom kitchen, quiet secluded location, near shopping, and medical facility. $195,900

Open 1-3

1140 Patriot Street

Location: From Governors Boulevard turn East on Constitution to Patriot, follow the signs

Spacious home with over 3,300 sq. ft. huge custom kitchen, dining area, formal living room, lower level family room, 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, 3 car garage, fenced and landscaped yard, deck, storage galore!  $224,900

Ask about the tax credits available when you purchase a home

2009 IS IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR, SO LONG AND I DON’T THINK THE YEAR WILL BE MISSED. 2009 FROM THIS SIDE OF THE FENCE CAN BEST BE DESCRIBED AS A GRIND OUT YEAR ALL SALES TOOK MORE TIME AND ENERGY TO ACHIEVE MY CLIENTS GOALS. WHEN 2009 STARTED IT APPEARED THE WORLD WAS FALLING OFF A CLIFF, WHICH IT WAS, THE QUESTION WAS WOULD THE FALL STOP.

FROM THE HOUSING PERSPECTIVE IN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY I THINK THE MARKET BEHAVED REASONABLY WELL BASED ON THE FACTORS INVOLVED. AT THE START PEOPLE WITHDREW FROM THE MARKET PLACE IN DROVES, REASONABLE WHEN IT APPEARS THE ECONOMY MAY END AS WE KNEW IT AROUND THE GLOBE. LUCKILY WE LIVE IN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY SO WE WERE SPARED THE WORST OF THE STORM.

IN FEBRUARY THE FIRST TIME BUYERS CREDIT STARTED AND SINCE EMPLOYMENT WAS GOOD AND PRICES IN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY NEVER OUT STRIPPED WAGES, FIRST TIME BUYERS CAME INTO THE MARKET THROUGH OUT THE YEAR, IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER IT WAS A RUSH TO WHAT WE ALL THOUGHT WOULD BE THE FINISH LINE OF THE TAX CREDIT. BUT THE POLITICIANS FOOLED US. BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR THEY EXTENDED AND EXPANDED THE TAX CREDITS TO HOUSING, SO IT BRIGHTENS THE OUT LOOK FOR THE BEGINNING OF 2010, MORE ON THAT LATER. THE BIGGEST INTERVENTION INTO HOUSING BY THE GOVERNMENT WAS ACTUALLY NOT THE TAX CREDIT BUT THE FEDERAL RESERVE BUYING MORTGAGES FROM FANNIE MAE AND FREDDIE MAC. Just SO YOU KNOW AS A TAXPAYER YOU CONTRIBUTED ABOUT 49% OF EVERY DOLLAR LENT IN 2009 TO HOME BORROWERS. IN TOTAL IF YOU COUNT ALL THE SUPPORT that WAS GIVEN TO HOUSING IT TOTALS ABOUT 2 TRILLION DOLLARS NOT A FIGURE YOU’RE LIKELY TO SEE IN 2010.

SO WHAT CLOUDS CAN WE PART AND SEE THE HOUSING MARKET IN 2010.

I WILL USE MY STANDARD DISCLAIMER ABOUT PROGNOSTICATIONS “IF I COULD ACCURATELY SEE THE FUTURE I WOULD BE RICHER THAN BILL GATES AND YOU WOULD NOT BE RECEIVING THIS FROM ME.” That BEING SAID HERE WE GO.

FIRST LETS LOOK AT CONSTRUCTION, CONSTRUCTION OF HOMES IS DRIVEN BY FIRST AND FOREMOST JOBS. ALTHOUGH YELLOWSTONE COUNTY IS FORTUNATE UNEMPLOYMENT IS ONLY 4.8% YELLOWSTONE COUNTY HAS 3804 FEWER PEOPLE EMPLOYED THAN THE PEAK OF EMPLOYMENT IN AUGUST OF 2007 WITH that IN MIND THE HOME CONSTRUCTION BUSINESS WILL PROBABLY SETTLE WHERE IT HAS BEEN IN THE LAST TWO YEARS ABOUT 250 SINGLE FAMILY HOMES IN 2010. that NUMBER IS ABOUT 200 HOMES LESS THAN BEFORE THE DOWN TURN AND 350 LESS THAN THE PEAK. ALTHOUGH YELLOWSTONE COUNTY CONTINUES TO GROW SLOWLY IN POPULATION IT IS JOBS that DRIVES NEW CONSTRUCTION.

EXISTING HOMES ACTUALLY ENDED THE YEAR UP 13 UNITS FROM 2008 that WAS DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE TAX CREDIT. IN 2010 WE HAVE NOT ONLY THE FIRST TIME BUYER CREDIT WE ALSO HAVE THE EXISTING HOME BUYER CREDIT FOR THOSE WHO HAVE LIVED IN THEIR HOME FOR AT LEAST 5 OF THE LAST 8 YEARS. THESE TWO FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE FEDERAL RESERVES COMMITMENT TO CONTINUE BUYING MORTGAGES THOROUGH MARCH OF 2010 SHOULD PROPEL HOUSING INTO THE NEW YEAR WITH A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PUSH.

That WILL MEAN PRICES SHOULD BE STABLE WITH NO DOWNWARD PRESSURE FROM FORECLOSURES AND, AT LEAST IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF THE YEAR, ENOUGH DEMAND TO BALANCE WITH INVENTORY.

WITH ALL PROGRAMS WHEN YOU PUSH ON ONE SIDE, SOMETHING MOVES ELSEWHERE, THIS IS ALSO TRUE IN HOUSING AND WITH THE POSITIVE SALES SIDE IT HAS CREATED A SOFTER RENTAL MARKET. THE AVERAGE ASKING PRICE FOR AN APARTMENT IN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY DECLINED 1% YET AVAILABILITY INCREASED BY 33% SO WE SHOULD EXPECT SOFTNESS IN THE PRICING ARENA FOR RENTALS FOR MOST OF 2010 UNTIL THE EFFECTS OF THE TAX CREDITS WEAR OFF IN THE SALES MARKET.

MY BELIEF IS 2010 WILL BE MORE STABLE THAN 2009 YET THE RESULTS BY THE END OF THE YEAR WILL MOST PROBABLY BE VERY CLOSE TO 2009 IN TERMS OF SALES YET MORE STABLE PRICING THROUGHOUT THE YEAR

HERE’S TO WISHING NOTHING BUT THE BEST IN 2010!!!!!!!!!!!!!.