market update 9/30/2008
Monday, October 13, 2008
Here’s the market update through the end of September.
This months report is considerable longer than most due to the financial market turmoil.
Inventory has started its normal fall decline. I would expect inventory to continue its normal decline throughout the rest of the year. The other normal occurrence this time of year is for sales to slow, there is a natural market slow down as we approach the holidays when people get more focused on their families than changing the place they live.
The events in the financials markets of the last 4 weeks have people asking what’s going to happen to the billings area, while I would expect some caution from both buyers and sellers, yet when I look at the overall economy of the Yellowstone valley I perceive a lot of positives. The questions I ask my self to try and discern the tea leaves are as follows
1. Are one the refiners going to shut down? Answer I don’t believe so
2. Are one of the hospitals going to shut down? Answer I don’t believe so
3. Is the federal government going to pull out of Billings? Answer I don’t believe so and in fact they just approved the building of a new court house.
4. Is school district 2 going to shut down? Answer not very likely
5. Can the retail sector experience a slowing of sales due to people being cautious? Answer probable and likely
6. Could construction both commercial and residential see a slowing? Answer residential already has and its likely commercial will slow from this year’s torrid pace
7. Is agriculture likely to slow its fast past income growth of the past few years? Answer probable yet incomes will remain at historically high levels for crops
Other things to consider, the roundup coal mine is moving hard and fast to build the rail road to ship coal, cabalas’ is finishing it’s store, the general electric building is under construction and will be coming on line next year, the oil field metal fabrication shop is moving forward and coming on line next year, unemployment in Yellowstone county is still only in the 4% range, and foreclosures are at less than 1% of existing home loans which is considered “normal”
Below this months numbers is a graph I have down comparing the purchase of a home in billings or investing the down payment in the stock market. You be the judge of what may treat your finances better over the long haul.
As always if you have any questions please give me a call or e-mail.
|
Market update at glance
|
9/30/2008
|
|
Year
|
Percentage Increase or -Decrease
|
||||
|
Yellowstone County
|
|
|
2007
|
2008
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Residential Closed Sales Units
|
|
|
1869
|
1549
|
|
-17%
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Residential Pending Sales Units
|
|
|
230
|
203
|
|
-12%
|
||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Residential Active Property Units For Sale
|
|
732
|
910
|
|
124%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average sales price Single family Home
|
|
$206,090
|
$209,184
|
|
2%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Square feet Single family Home
|
|
2352
|
2324
|
|
-1%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Median sales price Single family Home
|
|
$180,000
|
$185,000
|
|
3%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Median Square feet Single family Home
|
|
2214
|
2206
|
|
0%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Days on Market Till Offer Received
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Single Family Home
|
|
|
|
60
|
61
|
|
2%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Absorption rate -
|
TIME IN DAYS
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
Time it would take for all existing
|
|
|
|
188
|
|
|
||
|
properties to sell with no new inventory coming
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
into the market place - residential
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT ISSUED FOR MONTH
|
thru 9/30
|
27
|
21
|
|
-22%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT ISSUED FOR YEAR
|
thru 9/30
|
361
|
227
|
|
-37%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Number of Rentals Advertised Sundays
|
|
90
|
97
|
|
8%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Asking Price for a Rental Home
|
|
$871
|
$1,043
|
|
20%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Asking Price for a Rental Apartment
|
|
$630
|
$680
|
|
8%
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|||