Three quarters through the year and the defining aspect of the market is a tax credit that no longer exists. When the tax credit ended April 30th closed sales were 12% ahead of 2009 and pending sales were 37% above 2009. So despite the lowest interest rates in a lifetime buyers left the market. The positive for Yellowstone County is the inventory while higher than a year ago (14% in September vs. 12% in April) shows some semblance of stability in the market place. On the surface both the average and median sales prices show positive upward trends, yet you still must go back to the tax credit to find definition of pricing. When you look at the increase in size of home sold it shows the impact of the market returning to the “normal” mix of price range sales. The other price consideration is as the home size increases the amenities included goes up also which leads to a higher price therefore masking the underlying weakness of the market place. The positive take away from the above is in the mid term it again shows a stabilizing market place reaching for its equilibrium. Another sign of reaching for equilibrium is the decrease in market absorption time, it peaked at 252 days and at the current 230 days it is below April with the tax credit activity. While absorption is still high by at least it is headed in the right direction.

Market update at glance   Year  Percentage Increase 
Yellowstone County  6/30/2101 9/30/2010   2009 2010 or -Decrease
               
Residential  Closed Sales Units   1417 1298   -8%
               
Residential  Pending Sales Units 315 225   -29%
               
Residential  Active Property For Sale 894 1022   14%
               
Average sales price Single family Home $201,687 $211,639   5%
               
Average Square feet Single family Home 2280 2345   3%
               
Median sales price Single family Home  $181,150 $187,950   4%
               
Median Square feet Single family Home  2160 2204   2%
               
Average Days on Market Till Offer Received        
Single Family Home      67 63   -6%
               
Absorption rate -  TIME IN DAYS        
Time it would take for all existing   230    
properties to sell with no new inventory         
coming into the market place - residential         
               
SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS MONTH sept 23 15   -35%
               
SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS YEAR  178 190   7%
               
Average # Rentals Advertised Sundays 400 340   -15%
               
Average Asking Price  Rental Home $1,024 $1,041   2%
               
Average Asking Price Rental Apartment $670 $643   -4%

 

 

 

Graph indicating market returning to a more normal mix in price range by units sold and indicating the upper end finding some strength in sales from the huge interest rate reduction. Yet while improving in number of units sold will still probably end the year 20% fewer units than the peak.